Sunday, December 6, 2015

Manufacturing Fools People Into Seeing Recession

With global manufacturing in decline, observers who mistakenly equate manufacturing with the total economy are already calling a global recession. An example is Raoul Pal in a CNBC appearance who looks only at manufacturing and monetary policy and considers that evidence enough to predict a recession in the coming months. If the trends continue we will see hundreds of these unfounded recession predictions, and the view could even become a consensus. Set manufacturing aside, though, and indications point to global growth continuing along the lines of the last three years.

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